CRU: Wire And Cable - Q3 2020 Update, Metallic Wire & Cable:
LONDON, Sept. 14, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- After months of crisis and weak demand, alongside variable supply disruptions, global insulated metallic wire and cable consumption has started to stabilise and shows signs of bottoming out.
Demand is once again dominated by the recovery story in China, which accounts for more than 35% of total world cable demand and 91% of the net demand upgrade CRU has made between April and July.
Outside of China, cable demand in Europe and North America also improved, albeit gradually as economies reopen. Though the situation in India, South America and Africa remain critical, as the ongoing pandemic continues to impede their economic activities and the wire and cable industry is simply not exempt from those impacts.
CRU's in-house economics team forecast world GDP and IP to contract 4.7% and 5.4% y/y, respectively in 2020, with the assumptions that lockdowns across major economies will end in Q3 and there is no sizable second outbreak. This forecast implies the plunge in total world economy will be sharper than during the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009 (where GDP contracted by -1.4% y/y), whilst the downturn in industrial activities will be less severe (was -8.0% y/y).
As such, we forecast world insulated metallic wire and cable demand will decline by 5.3% y/y, reaching just shy of 18.0 Mt conductors this year. Indisputably, this will be the sharpest contraction since the GFC, but not as acute as the 7.6% y/y plummet back then.
In the mid-term, the recovery will vary across regions, although we do not expect cable demand to reach 2019's level again until 2022, in terms of conductor tonnes. Power cable will grow the fastest during this time horizon supported by the electricity grid, renewables and infrastructure developments.
Read more about CRU: http://bit.ly/About_CRU
CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.
Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.
CRU employs over 280 experts and has more than 11 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004 and Singapore in 2018.
When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.
CRU – big enough to deliver a high-quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers.